A methodology for assessing confidence in party formations based on the accuracy of the sociological surveys of agencies is developed and applied.
The results of the elections, the election results from the sociological agencies and the "success-failure" forecasts are followed. The instruments take into account the assumption of increasing reliability of the forecasts in the last 90 days before the election.
Quantitative forecasts, ratio between party forecasts, qualitative estimates in the "success-fail" forecasts, and the closeness of the reported forecast to the date of the election are reported.
Estimates are weighted and subjected to variance analysis. Their accuracy is accounted for. An estimation of the forecasts for the formations according to 6 criteria is made, according to the 5 criteria the forecasts of the sociological agencies are evaluated.