METHODOLOGY FOR PRE-ELECTION FORECAST ASSESSMENT

  • Method

    A methodology for assessing confidence in party formations based on the accuracy of the sociological surveys of agencies is developed and applied.

  • Input

    The results of the elections, the election results from the sociological agencies and the "success-failure" forecasts are followed. The instruments take into account the assumption of increasing reliability of the forecasts in the last 90 days before the election.

  • Values

    Quantitative forecasts, ratio between party forecasts, qualitative estimates in the "success-fail" forecasts, and the closeness of the reported forecast to the date of the election are reported.

  • Accuracy and assessment

    Estimates are weighted and subjected to variance analysis. Their accuracy is accounted for. An estimation of the forecasts for the formations according to 6 criteria is made, according to the 5 criteria the forecasts of the sociological agencies are evaluated.