For the creation of this methodology, related tools for risk analysis and assessment, such as the Political Instability Index (PITF) created by the Political Instability Index set up by the George Masson University in the United States, have been analyzed and systematized.

The methodology is built on the listed risks, grouped in 5 sectoral risks, which outline the pentagram of insecurity in Bulgaria.

The methodology allows for annual full monitoring and updating of the estimates for the five sectoral indices and the general uncertainty index. We monitor the sectoral and general insecurity index from 2012.

For national security

  • Permanent loss of population
  • Disturbances of territorial integrity
  • Terrorist acts and threats
  • Ethno-religious tensions and social conflicts

For the political system

  • Political instability – held or scheduled early parliamentary elections
  • Net distrust in the government
  • (No) business confidence
  • (No) consumer confidence
  • Corruption
  • Political protests

For the economy

  • Economic recession
  • Devaluation of capital, land, housing and offices
  • Budget deficit
  • Government debt
  • Non-performing loans
  • Credit rating of sovereign debt
  • Inflation-deflation

For the social sector

  • Poverty and social exclusion
  • Unemployment
  • Inequality
  • Deficit of the pension and social security system
  • Mortality rate
  • Rate of premature mortality
  • Child mortality rate
  • Share of people evaluating their health as “very bad” and “bad”
  • Overrun of funds in NHIF
  • General strike and civil disobedience

For energy sector

  • Energy dependence
  • Security of gas supply
  • Competitiveness of natural gas prices
  • Balance of power capacities and needs
  • Ratio between prices for industrial and household consumers
  • Competitiveness of gasoline prices
  • Competitiveness of diesel fuel prices